Let’s Not Forget
Historical amnesia can kill us in the Middle East.
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/lets-not-forget/
We may soon be in that quandary again. Americans are at the mercy of Washington’s political class, which is eager to exploit the electorate’s forgetfulness, acting recklessly without fear of accountability and revising the past with new lies as they move from failure to failure.
Who today remembers the Iraq War that began in 2003? Who remembers that the American military intervention was justified on the utterly false grounds that Saddam Hussein’s regime was secretly rebuilding its chemical and nuclear weapons programs?
The price of destroying Iraq while destabilizing the Middle East exceeded $2 trillion. Does anyone remember the bogus justifications for the use of American military power in 2003, the promises that were made to the public and broken, or the costs to American economic strength that had been grossly underestimated?
New conflicts are brewing in the Middle East. Yet as the buildup of American military power in the region signals the coming of a new war with Iran, how many Americans remember the consequences of previous military fiascos in Afghanistan, Korea, and Vietnam?
Opinion polls show fewer than 40 percent of Americans under 35 can accurately describe why we intervened in Iraq or the consequences that followed. As the crisis faded from trending topics, these vital lessons evaporated from public awareness like morning dew. Americans rarely verify today's claims in light of yesterday's facts.
This time, the price of forgetting promises to be exceptionally steep. Iran is Israel’s nemesis, the alleged source of its perpetual struggle with neighbors, the final obstacle to the creation of Greater Israel and Israeli regional supremacy. The U.S. seems ready to attack Iran and help Israel achieve its objectives.
Of course, Iran is not alone. Egypt is also in Israel’s crosshairs, as are Syria and Lebanon.
Then, there is Turkey. Turkish discontent with Israel’s campaign of mass murder, the expulsion of Palestinians, and its determination to absorb southern Syria into Greater Israel is a ticking time bomb ready to explode.
In Moscow’s view, Iran is the bastion that protects the soft underbelly of Russia. Iran is a natural fortress with defensible mountainous terrain, and north of Iran is important geopolitical real estate: the Eurasian steppe. Control of Iran would offer convenient invasion routes into the major industrial centers east of the Ural Mountains. (These same industrial centers were moved there by Stalin to give the Soviet Union the breathing space to manufacture material for World War II.)
Equally important, Russia, emboldened by military success in Ukraine, signed what amounts to a mutual defense pact with Tehran. Given Russia’s demonstrated technological superiority in the production of precision-guided missiles like the Oreshnik, it would be a serious mistake to discount the quality and impact of Russian military assistance to Iran in a future conflict with the U.S. and Israel.
Beijing’s support for Iran arises from a strategic imperative. Iran’s oil, gas, and mineral resources are important to China’s industrial expansion. Iran is also a vital component of the greater Eurasian trading network that is critical to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). BRI serves as the contemporary equivalent of the Silk Road, building the modern transportation infrastructure for commerce across the vast Eurasian landmass.
As in the past, when Persian Kings, Turkic Sultans, and Mongolian Khans controlled the Silk Road, Beijing will leave the administration of BRI to the states in Eurasia to manage trade flows. This frees Beijing to focus on industrial production.
Why is China determined to protect the BRI? Because it is a key tool of resistance against U.S. containment. Countries that trade with China and grow wealthy over time will not side with Washington against Beijing. Thus, the BRI is a non-military strategy for economic diplomacy to prevent Washington from isolating and eventually invading China.
In sum, Iran, Russia, and China share interests that support continued geostrategic interaction. It’s why both Beijing and Moscow come to Tehran’s aid if needed. At present, their support takes the form of technology transfers and economic assistance, but if U.S. and Israeli forces escalate the use of force, they will do so as well.
In an American-Israeli war with Iran, Moscow and Beijing will have escalation dominance, which suggests that Washington risks fighting a war that it is predestined to lose, just as the U.S. fought hopeless wars in Vietnam and Iraq and is losing a proxy war in Ukraine. Historical amnesia exacts a heavy price indeed, particularly when Washington ignores the strategic interests of its rivals.
Today, America faces a troubling future we can already glimpse forming on the horizon. A nation without shared memory becomes vulnerable to manipulation, unable to learn from mistakes, and gradually loses its identity and national power.
In 1897, Rudyard Kipling composed a poem crafted to remind the British people, especially their ruling class, of the transient nature of British imperial power. The closing words of his poem should resonate with Americans today:
Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget—lest we forget!
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